A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
